Biden’s path to losing by 100 (or more) electoral votes

Biden could definitely still win the election, but he won’t win in a rout. Trump probably will not win in a rout . . . but there's a decent argument that he might.

I believe he knows he’s an illegitimate president . . . he knows that there were a bunch of different reasons why the election turned out the way it did . . .  I know that he knows that this wasn’t on the level . . . I don’t know that we’ll ever know everything that happened, but clearly we know a lot and are learning more every day . . .

–Hillary Clinton, describing the results of the 2016 presidential election

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It is possible–though far from certain–that former President Donald Trump’s felony conviction may eventually dent his support in battleground states. It hasn’t happened yet.

And what is certain is that Virginia is not supposed to be a battleground state. 

Last week, in the first presidential poll of the state since Trump’s trial concluded, Fox News revealed a 48-48 tie between Trump and President Joe Biden. This replicated the results of a Roanoke College poll, completed just before the trial ended, showing a 42-42 tie. As of this weekend, the Real Clear Politics (RCP) polling average of all Virginia polls back to December 15 show Biden with just a 2.2 percentage point lead.

Regime media analysis reliably portrays this as a close race. But stripping away the confirmation bias, there’s evidence to support an argument that Trump could win by a 100-point cushion in the electoral college.

The path to 270

Let’s start with the easy math. If current polling averages are assumed predictive of the outcome, then Trump is already danger-close to locking down the 270 electoral votes he needs to win.

If Biden has just a 2.2 percentage point RCP polling lead in Virginia, a state that he absolutely must win, then what do we make of Pennsylvania (Trump +2.3 percentage points), Arizona (Trump +4.2), Georgia (Trump +4.8), North Carolina (Trump +5.3) and Nevada (Trump +5.3)?

Assuming no surprises in any other otherwise “safe” Trump or Biden states, here is the visual representation of Trump winning every state where he has a greater lead than what Biden has in must-win Virginia . . .

If the roles were reversed and it was Biden holding these leads in those states, then I dare say the regime media would already be chirping that he was “running strong” towards re-election and that it was “his race to lose.” 

But then, in addition to those states, we can also pile on that Trump currently has a tiny RCP polling lead in the two additional generally accepted “battleground” states: Michigan (Trump +0.3) and Wisconsin (Trump +0.1).

Assigning each side the states where they currently have a polling lead (however slight) gets us to this…

That’s an 86-point advantage in the electoral college for Trump, a seemingly obese outcome if true. But in fact, it is the “if nothing changes from what we currently see” baseline. 

And then, what of that small 2.2 percentage point margin for Biden in Virginia?

Trump stole multiple states where Clinton supposedly held such leads in 2016.

Virginia is not alone. Other “must win” Biden states are close.

The RCP average for Minnesota is currently just 2.3 percentage points in Biden’s favor. 

And while there is no RCP average for Maine, the last poll from February showed Trump winning by 6 points. A previous poll of Maine from last year showed Biden up by just 1 point. 

Richard Nixon in 1972 was the last Republican ticket to win Maine and Minnesota in the same year. The last Republican ticket to win both states without the names “Bush” or “Nixon” on the ticket was Herbert Hoover in 1928.

Virginia, Maine and Minnesota should not be states where Trump has a chance. These are big holes Biden is digging. Alas… if we toss those states onto the Biden bonfire, this is what happens . . . 

If not a blowout, this is definitely the “decisive win” territory. It exceeds the 332-206 electoral college win President Obama scored over Romney in 2012.

Trump getting to 337 is obviously unlikely, but not outrageous. By the RCP averages, Trump has at least as good a chance of winning each of the states in the map above as Biden does of just winning Pennsylvania.

And if Biden doesn’t win Pennsylvania, then he probably won’t win at all.

Getting really a little crazy…

Then there’s New Mexico, Colorado and New Hampshire. None of them have been substantively polled.

There is no RCP polling average for New Mexico. The most recent poll, way back in August 2023, gave Biden an 8-point lead. 

To get an idea of how outdated all this is, in August 2023 Roanoke College gave Biden a 9-point lead in Virginia. As noted above, Roanoke now calls it a tie. 

Similarly, the RCP average for Colorado shows a 6.5-point lead for Biden, but the last poll of the state was in January.

Who is winning Colorado and New Mexico right now? Probably Biden? … But who knows.

The New Hampshire RCP average favors Biden by 5.3 points but is based on three polls going back to November 2023. The only recent survey, from May, shows Biden up only 4 points. 

These are far from likely states, but neither are they impossible. 

Add them to the total and here’s what the full Trump area of opportunity map could look like . . .

Finally, for perspective, until the last presidential election Florida was still considered a battleground. The RCP polling average currently shows Trump with an 8-point lead in Florida. 

It’s possible that Biden could roar back and take Florida, on his way to routing Trump in the electoral college. But on the current numbers, that’s not as likely as Trump winning in a rout by stealing New Hampshire, Colorado and New Mexico. 

Biden could definitely win, but he won’t win in a rout. Trump probably won’t win in a rout. But he surely could.