Landslide: the electoral college ceilings for Trump & Biden
To have a narrow shot at winning, Biden needs a 3 to 5-point bounce over current polling averages in a half dozen states. Give Trump those bounces & he'll be dancing to a landslide.
Evacuate? In our moment of triumph? I think you overestimate their chances.
–Grand Moff Tarkin, Star Wars (1977)
In the previous post (from too long ago—early June) I examined this premise: Biden’s path to losing by 100 (or more) electoral votes.
This was before “The Debate” and Butler, Pennsylvania.
The path to a Biden fiasco now seems that much wider.
How wide? Think about what could happen if each side experienced a meaningful shift in polling fortunes in all battleground states. (This presumes—perhaps erroneously—that it’s still going to be a Trump v Biden contest.)
At present the RealClearPolitics averages that assume no toss up states give Trump a healthy advantage:
If this polling is reflective of how the race will end, then Trump will win with slightly more electoral votes than he did in 2016, and more than Biden did in 2020.
So, what has to change to make this more competitive?
The states in play
For the purposes of this analysis, here are the 14 states where each candidate has no better than a 7-point advantage in the RCP averages:
ME: Assumed Tied
NJ: Biden assumed +7.0
NM: Biden assumed +7.0
In the map above, Virginia is assumed a Biden state, even though the recent RCP average shows a tie.
Maine has been assumed a Biden state under the current Real Clear Politics map shown above. Maine doesn’t have a polling average (yet) but the last poll showing (from February) shows an ominous (for Democrats) Trump lead of 6 points.
Despite the potential that Trump is actually winning Maine, for this analysis Maine—like Virginia—will be considered a tie.
Similarly, there are no polling averages for New Jersey or New Mexico, but the last polls in each showed Biden with a 7.0-point lead.
What if each guy got an extra field goal per state?
Assume first that a hypothetical Biden surge between now and the election gives him a win in any state where he’s currently winning or losing by no more than 3 points. That extra cushion gives him the hope of taking both Wisconsin and Michigan away from Trump.
But that bounce still leaves him short of the 270 electoral votes he needs:
And giving that 3-point bounce to Trump adds back not just Michigan and Wisconsin to his tally, but would also flip Virginia, Maine, Minnesota and New Hampshire.
This would move Trump to 341 electoral votes, and put him in between the 332 EVs Obama won in 2012, and the 365 EVs Obama took in 2008:
Trump would be able to quietly whisper “landslide.”
But let’s be real. This is Trump we’re talking about. There would be no whispering.
What about an extra 4 points?
Giving Biden every state where he’s currently winning or losing by no worse than 4 points would add Georgia to his tally.
But even that boost for Biden would still leave Trump with a narrow win:
The same 4-point rally for Trump does not add new states, so it doesn’t improve on his healthy 341 EVs from the previous scenario.
How above 5 points?
To get Biden past 270 requires an extraordinary polling bounce between now and election day that gives him every state where he’s currently winning or behind by no worse than 5 points.
This would add Nevada, and narrowly tip the map blue:
A 292 electoral vote tally would be closer than Trump’s win in 2016 (304 EVs) and Biden in 2020 (306 EVs).
Once again, a 5-point move for Trump doesn’t give him any additional states above his 3-point scenario of 341 EVs.
Okay, give him an extra touchdown per state . . .
To get Biden to something approaching a big win requires handing him every state where he’s currently winning or losing by no worse than 7 points. That would add Arizona and North Carolina to his total from the previous scenario.
It is the only option that wins Biden all the currently assumed swing states where Trump is presently leading or tied:
As shown above, Trump is currently ahead in states totaling 312 EVs, but without needing the extra 3-7 points per state.
Not a happy place to be for Team Blue.
To grasp how unlikely such a reversal of fortune might be for Biden, flip those extra touchdowns instead to Trump where he could use them. That would add Colorado, New Jersey and New Mexico to the red real estate:
None of those last three are on anyone’s battleground list right now.
You have to go back to Bill Clinton’s 1996 reelection (376 EVs) to find a win that large for any president. And Clinton got exactly 370 in 1992.
Putting it all together
Trump’s best-case scenario, assuming polling bounces in his future, is a blowout that would give him 340 electoral votes.
Assuming the same remarkable good fortune goes the other way, Biden’s ceiling looks to be just barely enough for a win.
Or perhaps his best option is retiring and handing this shitshow over to Kamala Harris before he finds out that he can’t get that lucky.