September polls hide shy Trump voters

In two previous elections Trump has decisively outperformed his September polls in battleground states. If he does it by just a little bit this time, then then he'll rack up 312 electoral votes.

Man does not control his own fate. The women in his life do that for him.

—Groucho Marx

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Steven Greenhouse doesn’t understand America’s young men. 

“It’s the most startling thing I’ve seen in this year’s presidential campaign – the astoundingly large gap between how young men and young women plan to vote this November,” the American journalist wrote in The Guardian on September 3rd. Greenhouse’s astonishment was fueled by a poll of Americans aged 18-30, showing 67 percent of the women planned to vote for Harris while 53 percent of the men planned to vote for Trump.

Trump voters have historically been notoriously shy about admitting it. So, a lot of those young men pledging support for Harris—or undecided— were probably lying.

Doubt me?

Way back in 2012, the Liberal Ladies who Lunch hilariously declared a sex strike;

“In light of the recent war on women, we are calling for a nationwide sex strike from April 28th to May 5th. All women should withhold from having sex with their partners. This will help people understand that contraception is for women and men, because men enjoy the benefit of women making their own choices about when and if they want to get pregnant.”

In addition to the supposed “war on women” taking place, this was the year that Mitt Romney–a stuffy investment banker and the former Republican governor of deep blue Massachusetts–was being portrayed as the latest and greatest threat to “our democracy.”

“If you vote for Mittens, I won’t sleep with you,” exclaimed the Liberal Ladies, implicitly insisting on a response that could not be trusted.

Imagine how much saner the world has become since then?

I have no trouble believing 67 percent of young women might vote for Harris. And if that’s true, then many of the young men close to them are probably planning to vote for Trump.

But they won’t say so until it becomes a live fire exercise and they’re alone with their ballot. If the poll says 53 percent of young men are for Trump, then the real number might be north of sixty.

Young wife: “Who’s that?”

Young husband: “It’s a pollster.”

Young wife: “Excellent! We’re VOTING KAMALA!!!!”

Young husband: “Uh… yeah… sure. What she said!”

This stuff ain’t rocket surgery. The “shy Trump voter” is an undeniable truth. He has always outperformed his polling. If that happens even a little bit in this election, it may not be close.

Some history . . . 

In early September 2016 the Real Clear Politics polling average for Michigan had Clinton up by more than 7 points in Michigan, but she lost the state by 0.3 points. In Wisconsin, Clinton was up by 6.5 percentage points in the final polling average–seemingly outside a margin of error–but she still lost by 0.7 points. In Pennsylvania she was up by six in September and lost by 0.7 points. 

Those states decided the race and their polling was undercounted Trump’s appeal by more than five points in each case.

And though Trump lost all three of the aforementioned states (plus Arizona and Georgia) in 2020, the big skews were still there. 

The final RCP average for Wisconsin in 2020 favored Biden by 6.7 points, but he won by a mere 0.7 points. In September, Biden was up almost 7 points in Michigan, but the voters gave him just a 2.8 point edge on Election Day. In Arizona RCP had Biden up by 5.5 in September, but 0.3 was his actual margin. In Pennsylvania, Biden was up 4 in September, but crossed the line with just a 1.2 point margin.

Only in Georgia was Trump winning by one in September 2020, only to lose the state by a tight 0.3 points. 

If two previous Trump elections are any guide, then a conservative estimate is that he could outperform his September polling in key states by at least 2 points. 

What does that look like?

The current (September 12, 2024) RCP map has Trump winning the electoral college with 281 votes, already eleven more than he needs. 

Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin are the big swing states currently assumed in the Harris column. In Nevada, her margin is 0.6 percentage points. In Michigan she’s up 0.9, and in Wisconsin it’s 1.8 points. Shift two points in Trump’s favor between now and the election for each of the three and he wins them all.

Assuming the shy Trump voter continues to arrive, albeit in this far muted form compared to 2016 and 2020, this yields him 312 electoral votes—a win larger than 2016. 

The likely Harris team counterargument goes like this:

1. We have been calling him a threat to our democracy for nine years. But all those people we scared away from being honest to pollsters for most of a decade are now miraculously and accurately represented in the current polling. 

2. Trump has been in the public eye for 40 years, and we’ve been beating on him for almost a decade. But this year, we’ll come up with something new to say about him that will matter.

3. Despite not being well known to the electorate, Republicans will fail to redefine Kamala Harris between now and November. Her polling is as bad as it is going to get. Only upside from here!

Though more than a quarter century removed from being in the young men age bracket, I remember what Steven Greenhouse has apparently forgotten about being one. A lot like their older selves (except much more so) the majority steer far clear of irritating wives, girlfriends and other women they hope to impress. 

With all the venom pouring in from the regime and its media hacks towards Trump voters, the shy Trump voter still exists in all genders and races. But as with much else about them, the young men may be the easiest to understand.